A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
